Axel Merk: Eurozone Election Hangover

Axel Merk, Merk Funds, published a new "Merk Insights" newsletter entitled "Eurozone Election Hangover" where he discuss the possible consequence of recent elections in France and Greece for the Euro and other currencies.

 With the hangover from elections in the Eurozone lingering, which answer is correct?

a) A socialist is in charge in France;
b) Nobody is in charge in Greece; or
c) None of the above

The good news about a socialist running France is that his honeymoon shall be rather short. It took the previous socialist President François Mitterrand two years before he shelved his activist agenda and became a moderate. The market won’t be that patient; that’s why we pick answer c) above: the language of the bond market will be the only language policy makers listen to. The bond market is in charge.

What about Greece? It might be possible to put together a minority government of Antonis Samaras “New Democracy” and the former ruling “PASOK” party that is tolerated by the “Independent Greeks.” Panos Kammenos founded Independent Greeks after disagreeing to the terms of his country’s bailout when he was a member of the New Democracy. In the eyes of the Greeks, Germany and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appear to be in charge; with anger over yielding to demands of those with money, German flags are frequently put on fire during Greek elections. One way to manage Greece’s future would be to give Greece money with no strings attached, except to tell them that no more money will follow suit. That way, the Greek people will own their own problems and can no longer blame others for their plight. In practice, Greece is likely to fall into chaos at some point, as the country has been unable to achieve a primary surplus, i.e. be able to operate before making interest payments; the question in our view is where the resulting anger will be focused.

What does it mean for the euro? The euro is recovering after a dire Monday morning; keep in mind, though, that much of Asia had a holiday and missed digesting the disappointing U.S. unemployment report; liquidity is low, as London is closed for a holiday. Medium term, however, our bigger concern is that big money, such as the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, is taking a step back from the Eurozone. As such, the odds of more liquidity provisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) have increased. We believe the euro will underperform other European currencies; note, though, that the world, including the U.S., will remain awash in money. The rocky road will continue as policy makers hope for the best, but plan for the worst. This should bode well for commodity currencies in the medium term; of these, the Canadian Dollar, Norwegian Krone and New Zealand Dollar are currently our favorites.

Axel Merk: Currencies: Crisis & Opportunity

Axel Merk, Merk Funds, published a new "Merk Insights" newsletter entitled "Currencies: Crisis & Opportunity".

In this newsletter, he discusses the choices to be made by Germany and tries to understand why Germany is so generous:

• The exposure of financial institutions towards Greek debt. A lot of progress has been made in making the European banking system more robust; the envisioned 53% write-down of Greek debt is priced into markets already. Concerns regarding outright exposure to Greece have abated. Rather, concerns linger about the inter-dependency across financial institutions, the potential “contagion” as other countries – and thus financial institutions across Europe and beyond - may be considered at increased risk of default.
• In 2010, Germany exported €5.9 billion worth of goods to Greece, a 10.2% drop versus the previous year. While significant, Germany’s $3 trillion economy could stomach losing exports to Greece.
• Germany’s desire for peace in Europe.

Merk also explains that "Relative calm has come back to the market, but at a price: for Germany, it is that it now owns the Greek problem."

 He goes on to explain that "Another price has been paid on the monetary front. Since November 1, 2011, when Mario Draghi became President of the European Central Bank (ECB), we’ve witnessed a seismic shift in how monetary policy is being conducted. While we applaud Draghi for his clarity and determination, his decision to provide almost €500 billion in three-year financing to banks (LTRO) at a mere 1% may come at a tremendous cost."

For now, the market appears ecstatic but it may lead to serious problems down the road.

After talking about the currency crisis, he discusses about the opportunities:

Massive short positions previously built-up need to be unwound. As central bankers around the world hope for the best, but plan for the worst, lots of money is being printed: by the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), to name the prime instigators. Commodity currencies, i.e. the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) should be the main beneficiaries. While these currencies have performed well, Australia is undergoing some domestic political turmoil and Canada’s fate is closely linked to that of the U.S.; as a result, the NZD would be our favorite in that group. Having said that, geopolitical tensions and monetary easing have boosted oil prices in particular, causing headwinds to global economic growth and, with it, also to commodity currencies. If those headwinds play out further, we would make the Norwegian Krone (NOK) our preferred choice, as Norway benefits from rising oil prices, as well as providing investors with relative safety in Europe. It’s not surprising that gold, the one currency with intrinsic value, continues to appreciate in this environment. 

Related articles

• You: Eurozone crisis live: ECB to launch massive cash injection (guardian.co.uk)
• Draghi: Greek compliance must be 'flawless' (sfgate.com)